Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Nifty may close below 5100 today

NF Daily Chart
Though RBI CRR cut of 50 bps has given a good rally to Nifty, which helped the index to cross over 5100 mark. RBI rate hike is to boost liquidity in terms of Rupee appreciation and also to boost banks for overnight borrowings. Everyday banks borrow money overnight from RBI @18% and that has come down to 16% which will give them more liquidity. But is the rate cut season has started? I do not think so as the fiscal deficit is churning up and it was predicted that it should be around 4.6% of GDP but it may go up to 6% GDP which is more pain for government. Unless Indian government takes some fiscal reforms and measures things are looking gloomy.
Now about Nifty, it may target 5070 for today's close as well as today is the expiry of F&O. Nifty is highly ovebought and investors/traders can short at this level upto 5150.


2-45 pm IST Update
Nifty testing the patience of traders who have shorted. As today is the expiry NS trying to close above 5150 to get the most rollovers.


TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Below 5016 only Nifty may test 5000 otherwise it may go to 5100

NF Daily Chart
Nifty is trading in overbought zone for the second week. Today's RBI meet is very important. Greece talks are also same important in terms of global factor. if Nifty sustains above 5064 and RBI approves dovish stance(which is more unlikely at this moment) NS may go up to 5100 otherwise there will be down move to 5016 and below 5016 NS may target 4991-4972.But keeping on expiry NS may close above 4937 which is JNSAR.



TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Friday, January 20, 2012

Nifty tested 5050 but that is enough

NF Daily chart by Google Finance

NS has moved past 5050, but I think this is enough from 4531 to 5050. As Anil said that ruppee is appreciating so the banks are gaining that is true But we do have RBI credit policy which is going to be held on 24th Jan. Though RBI may be dovish in terms of CRR cut but there is much liquidity in system. IIP data has given some boost so growth wise it is fine though IIP data is still not reliable. Expansions for the corporates are being stalled but inflation has come down below 7.5% MOM. Though RBI's stance for inflation would be below 6%. I do not think RBI will jump to cut rates atleast in January. NS sustaining below 4991 will wake up the bears and I am hoping expiry will be somewhere near 4885-4850 level.NS will face stiff resistance around 5030-5065-5080 level.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Nifty to resist @ 5011 level

Nifty Fut Daily Chart

NF is in highly overbought mode. Yesterday's consolidation after big rally has stalled NS to 4950 level. But as I said this rally is not convincing, it is the liquidity which is driving NS above 4986 level. I am full bearish at this level. Below 4985 short NS. Even NF is in discount now.

RIL is leading the front for NS for last 2 days where as CNX-IT stocks are lagging. But RIL has called for buyback of stocks which signifies down the line the earning will not be good for RIL. Tomorrow is RIL result and from tomorrow the bear show will start.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Nifty to test 5011 or before then it may go to 4906?

NF Daily Chart
Technicals of week is presently favouring this upmove. A keen tussle would emerge to retain 5000.
Support has risen to today's low-4905 with a gap & intraday supports @ 4935-45. 4986 is the immediate resistance above that NS may test 5011, but that level is almost 480 points up move from 4531. NS has to correct from there and it may go down to 4800 in this month or rather this down move will take 9-16 days. Due to expiry, option writers won't allow to come down more. May be after expiry the fall will start. This rise is not at all convincing. Strong Euro has pulled the European market as Spanish short term bond yields has come down and Spain could able to raise desired money. Overall situation is not favourable for sovereign bond holders. European debt has made S&P to downgrade the ratings. Obviously banks and other corporate institutions will not be ready to waive off the heavy debt made by countries.

For S&P(chart taken on 12-48 am IST) also 9-RSI is overbought state.

S&P Daily Chart at 12-50 am IST



TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Market may move to 5000 in this week

NF Daily chart

NS has broken the 4880-4900 cluster resistance levels. It will again find some resistance at 4925 level. Breaking of that can lead to 5000 in NS within this week. Because NS has good support at 4825 levels.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 16th Jan

Nifty Daily Chart
 Stochastics in Daily chart showing as Highly overbought zone. NS has turned up and reached 4899 and retraced back to 4838 and closed at 4866. NS facing heavy resistance @ 4900-4915 level. Important to watch 4820-4804 level. If NS breaches 4800 and decisively breaches 4791 then it may reach to 4751 and from then 4688 level. But if NS holds 4816 on first 2 hours of trade on 16th January, NS may go back to 4911 and then 4937 level.


TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Friday, January 13, 2012

Sell on Rise in NS as it has closed below 4838

NF Daily Chart
NS has closed below all High EMAs, even it has closed below 4838 which is HEMA daily basis. So SELL On RISE is the mantra. Support for NS will be 4800 and then 4769.NS has closed below Day Pivot of 4835 where 4880 is found as bigger resistance.

Below 4800 more pain for Bulls.




TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Nifty forming evening star

NF Daily Chart
As per the candlestick pattern Nifty Future chart shows there is a formation of Evening Star in Daily Chart.
The uptrend is getting exhausted may be lack of buying potentials from buyers. Today the down leg may start and as per Evening Star NS may go down more. Today at the opening selling of all longs (if taken) are suggested.
This uptrend is resisted @50 SMA-4875 and 4882 which is 68% fibonacci retrace from 5099-4531.
Even daily stochastic is also showing Highly Overbought. 9-RSI is also near overbought status.

8-45 am IST Update

Infosys has beat the street expectations in terms of Net Profit and EPS. But as I told yesterday the USD guidance has more importance for the next quarter(Q4) and Infosys has disappointed. I think Infosys will be thumb down by street.


TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data


Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Nifty to resist @ 4882

NF Daily Chart
Nifty had a superb rally yesterday. Above 4825 there were no boundaries for NS. But today also the upmove will continue till 4882. Profit has to be booked partially/full. Nifty may come down to 4825-4800 level again. BN and CNX-IT will show the day.

European factor is still visiting back, probable chance of NS to slide to 4588-4562 level on the downside and if Infosys result comes good with stronger USD guidance then NS may go to 5050 level in January.



TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Nifty has to break the cluster of 4765-4692 for direction


NF Hourly Chart
Nifty is in the cluster resistance of 4765-70 to get the direction for more upside. If Nifty is able to break 4765(DHEMA)-4692(DLEMA) range, then Nifty will decisively follow the trend.NS has closed below all High EMAs.

Staying above today's pivot 4732,target will be 4770/4793(R1/R2)
Staying below today's pivot 4732,target will be 4705/4670(S1/S2)



TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Monday, January 9, 2012

Lackluster trading in Nifty: range is still 4690-4769

NF Daily chart
If resisted below 4780 and trades below 4755, weakness could drag it below 4705 towards 4675 or even 4635. DHEMA for today is 4769 and NS has to break it decisively to go more upside.DLEMA for today is 4690 below that is weakness.

Sometimes in these choppy and sluggish sessions it is advised to trade in Hourly basis moving averages(HEMA) but keep a Stop Loss on the basis of Daily moving averages(DEMA).







TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Nifty may show volatile session today with very low volume

NF in Daily chart
Nifty is opened today from 11-00 am to 1-00 pm.
The way 4600,4700 & 4800PE has shoot up from the bottom is not heartening sign for Bulls when Nifty is hardly 40 -50 points below from it’s day Top. There is also addition in OTM puts. NS has also closed below 4769(DHEMA). So sell on close to 4690(DLEMA) still intact.



TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data


Friday, January 6, 2012

Nifty in corrective mode

NF Daily Chart
Nifty should hold 4710-20 at the opening hour today. Nifty has closed below 4756(HEMA).
Holding day's gain is the next requirement.
Breaking past 4775-80, hour channel resistance is the next and bulls must do it today to have a decisive continuation of upmove.
"4825" is the daily channel resistance.

12-00 am Update

Question: Can intra longs be initiated with an hourly closing above DLEMA or they shud be treated with repective hourly time frame only i.e. with a close above HLEMA?

Answer: Always have a combination trading system such as:

Week/ Day TA for positional.
Day/ Hour for Short term as well as Intraday.

After Day closed below DHEma, the week/ Day presents a sell on rise but without down momentum as the closes have been above both WLEma & DLEma.

As for Day/ Hour combo, similar sentiments except that Day hasn't triggered a sell by closing below its DEma yet.It could be today.

As the colours in the TT changes, you can feel the strength & weaknesses of different time frame.

As long as the higher T/F is in sell mode, treat the greens in the lower T/F as a ST play only till other "credible reversal patterns & divergences emerge".

2-00 pm Update

4720-25 is big resistance now as it broke today which was working as support for last 2 days.Above that day for bulls.

Book your profit part or full @ 4758 as it is well above DHEMA.

3-30 pm IST Update

Market showed some choppy sessions. I told lower levels of profit booking for longs. Even @4780 level shorts were taken and again booked @4740 level below DHEMA. NS held 4756 at closing basis but there are Out of the money(OTM) active puts bought. So market may need time to break 4786 decisively. No positions carried for overnight.



TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Consolidation phase to continue after huge upmove

NF Daily chart
Today's developing JNSAR is 4690. So Nifty should protect this for today as Lead indicator suggests highly overbought in hourly chart. Still immediate support is 4723 and resistance is 4780(yesterday's high). As long JNSAR(4690) is protected we can see more upside upto 4815 intraday basis.



TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Doji turned a Dragonfly Doji?

NF in Daily Chart
Monday Doji was confirmed though it was not exactly Dragonfly Doji but yesterday's superb move of 120 points in NS may confirm that too.
Yesterday's  HEMA 4724 will become the support and yesterday's high 4773 will act as immediate resistance.Hourly NS is slightly overbought. From 5099 to 4531, 0.38% fibonacci retracement is 4747 and that is done. 4815 is 0.50% retracement. Above that level NS may target 4882 and 4950.Buy in dips is the mantra.





TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Nifty forming Doji on Daily Chart

NF in Daily chart forming Doji?

Nifty forming Doji in Daily chart. Many times Doji has given a bullish scenario in daily chart.
Nifty stopped around the 80% retrace of the last rise from 4531 to 4801 and thus attempting to make a ST reversal.
In the opening session, the downtrend continued to assert itself and Nifty drifted lower despite its attempt to move above Day pivot-4642.
Once it reached 4588, the hour TA showed the first glimpse of "intraday changes" with a hour close near the highs.Subsequent drops became small retracements and Nifty closed near day's high and above DLEma.
Holding above 4590, it could attempt to break past the channel. How high it could go...So far only the Hour TA has confirmed a ST reversal. It is yet to affect the day/ week TA.
If no reversal takes place in this month, January may show a deep cut.

12-45 pm IST Update

Huge intra O.I. addition in NF above 15 lac plus,needs now at-least some intra cooling off is feeling here so it will be interesting to see from here how Nifty will play around weekly 5Ema,if it shall try the same..

1-00 pm IST Update

4730-4750 is the profit(full) booking zone for those who have taken long.

2-20 pm IST Update

Lead Indicator(Stochastics 5,3,3) is showing overbought in hourly NF chart





TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Monday, January 2, 2012

Below 4586 Nifty will drag down further

NF Daily Chart
"4586" is the 80% mark of the retracement of 4531 to 4801.
ST reversal, if any, is possible if it holds.
Breach of "4663" would have, initially, some upsides. More confirmations would come only above 34 Hr sma @ 4705.
Downtrend is intact. Below 4585(approx..), it could gather momentum





TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data