Nifty on Weekly, Monthly and Yearly Closing

Nifty Daily Chart

Aggressive traders may go long here & between 4700-4650 with strict stoploss of 4600 & target will be 4775-4825.
Retracement for the recent fall of 162 points from 4801 to 4639 comes @ 4701(38%), 4721(50%) and 4740(61.8%). Upsides possible above 4740.
Sustaining below 4650 will lead weakness & sustaining above 4700-4725 will provide strength so manage your position accordingly.
MLEma @ 4732 is a number that would be defended by Bears.
WLEma @ 4672 is a number that bulls would need to defend the least.

2-45 pm IST Update
NS may test 4586 also.
4586 is the 80% fibo retrace from 4801 to 4532. 71% fibo retrace is 4603.




TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Nifty yet to gain downward momentum

Nifty, having closed below DHEma, losing up-momentum but yet to gain downward-momentum.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Tomorrow is expiry day and huge volatility is expected.
If 4675-4700 protected in first half then we may see good short covering in second half.
Bulls will find real strength after sustaining above 4725-4750 and then 4825-50 rock solid resistance. Short term buyers must respect value of 4650 & sellers must value 4825-50.

Look for a developing Fast Fall setup in Hourly Chart



TT Data has been updated.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Immediate Target 4810-4815. Beware: Nifty is on Expiry week/year

Nifty rally is continuing keeping above 4724 which is Daily Pivot

Daily Nifty Chart provided by Google Finance

14-RSI is still crossed halfway mark(51). This rally may continue with/without any mid-point crisis to 80+ in 14-RSI to get overbought. This should happen till this weekend or expiry. But beware of roll over crisis due to expiry. FIIs won't want to roll over at higher price if they have not done yet. 4810-4815 is also a rock solid resistance level.

(Extended to maximum, at 4880(61% fibo retrace) and 4895(WHEMA) Nifty will show heavy profit booking.)

Book profit @4810-15 level in first hour of trade.
Go long if Nifty holds 4820 after then with a SL of 4779(yesterday's close).
Go short otherwise if Nifty unable to hold 4767(Daily Pivot) level with a SL of 4820.

12-00 pm Update
Nifty Spot resisted at 4801 it seems 4800 is strong resistance.

Yesterday, "4755" held for intraday.
Today, "4767" has been holding so far. Weak below this for "Intraday".

1-30 pm Update
9-RSI is in overbought status

2-30 pm Update
"4724"-DEma; "4718"-yesterday's low-if holds these levels, day TA could give another round of upmove.

There are various trade set ups emerging at any given time. Choosing the right one gives you better risk reward.

Accordingly we chose the "Break-down at 4767 when Hour TA was fully ripe for a correction". I don't know how far the correction could last or turn to a fall.

I have continued to view this upmove as a corrective rally.

Last consumed 9 days from 4639 to 5099.

This one was expected to be smaller than that.

Also "4732" plays an important role near the month end.


TT Data has been updated.

Google Chart is posted but MT4 not posted due to server was down for Christmas holiday in USA

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Nifty more above 4752?

12-45 pm Update

Holding above 4710-4725, the immediate target/ min. target is 4805-15.
If manages to contain the correction from then on within 38%, next target is 4880.
So far it has been behaving like the rally from 4639 to 5099 which was a 61.8%, hence the 4882 target( a 61.8%).
The similarity could end suddenly.
The 4639 to 5099 took 9 trading days.
If the current move is a corrective one, it is expected to consume lesser time. Sofar it has taken 4 days.
Two targets: 4810 and 4880 while holding above 4720.

2-30 pm Update

"Watch 4755" for intraday breakdown..if any.

At around 4800+, look out for -ve div in Hour charts
Hold Nifty future with a SL of 4720

TT Data has been updated.

Chart is not posted due to boxing day cricket match.

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Nifty resisted at cluster of 4760-70

 The "rally from 4639 to 5099" which lasted 9 days, you get some clues of existing similarities in them. That rally was correcting a larger decline from 5400 whereas the current one is correcting a smaller fall from 5099 to 4531.

If the minor correction that started from today is contained above DLEma(4645) or Week pivot(4670), an attempt towards 4800 is possible. Accordingly this rally should also terminate within 7 trading days from the 4531 lows. This is a near term bullish but medium term bearish view.

Similarly, there are other possibilities too exist which may be brought to the front if prices compel.
Going into the last week of the month, "4732"-MLEma would be keenly watched.

Nifty to Test 4800?

Fast Rise in 30 min chart

Nifty chart 30 min

To day up to this Hr.there is not that much enthusiasm in rollover like
yesterday and intraday volume.And Nifty unable to cross
4753 confidently,where there is 1st minute big volume
cash trade has taken place.Probably Nifty coming closer
to Hrly.slightly over bought condition would be the reason.I would like to see the battle
around Day J10SAR again,in the latter half.

1.30 pm Update

Long:
BN Target 8625
NS Target 4848
NS above 4770 more upside
Short:
NS below 4753 can be shorted with a SL of 4774 target 4712

1.45 pm Update
Shorts covered @4721.
Nifty can be bought above 4731-35 with a SL of 4698
Target 4783.

3-00 pm Update
NS bounced back from 4693, it seems 4700 is strong support.
Banghead day....



Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Nifty broke out channel support @4660

NF 15 min chart

Now it is confirmed that  Down Wave completed @4532 and it has taken 9 trading sessions from 5099. So the Up move from 4532 is labelled as Wave A and it may be in the up move for 9 to 14 tradings sessions and possible target is 4986-5010. If NIFTY fail to cross 5010 then market may correct by about 980 points in less than 33 trading sessions.

Remember we already completed two trading sessions and we are 250 points away from highest possible target 4985 and the remaining trading session for this upmove to be completed is 7 to 12 trading sessions.

If market goes above 5010 then the target will be 5510 and time factor may be around 33 trading sessions.

Daily Chart

Don’t try to play the market all the time. It can’t be done, too tough on the emotions. - Jesse Livermore

I never try to predict or anticipate. I only try to react to what the market is telling me by its behavior. - Jesse Livermore

Inverse H&S is in making?

Technical Analysis for 22nd Dec 2011

Is Inverse H&S pattern making in Daily Chart?

Nifty Daily Chart - an Inv H&S?

10-00 am Update
Consistent trading above 4655 ... Nifty likely to show new top,and below 4655 probably it would test DLEMA.But now when NF O.I. has come down reasonably well,the selling would be absorbed easily. Let us see.
Anyway this :pause: is quite nature after a big rise I feel strong support @ 4600 levels. In between it may threaten to break like situation but it will manage 4650 level. if it protects no worry we will meet @ 4774 ofcourse not in one go. If @ one go who don't want?

12-00 pm Update
Supported so far @ 34hr sma-4652.
Struggling around 4666-DEma.
Above 4675, strength/ channel break out.
Below 4652 - towards 21 hr sma.(4610-15) also DLEma
Bank Nifty will show strength above 8120.

2-00 pm Update
4709 Is 61.8% FROM 4818/4531.
HIGH SO FAR 4708.80.
NEXT IS 4743/4761
NS has to be above 4711(DHEMA) and 4721(JNSAR) for more upside.

2-36 pm Update
JNSAR is hit LONG







Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Is Santa back from Honolulu?

Daily Chart

Nifty Chart 21-12-2011

There was a frantic SOS call from Banta which triggered Santa to cut short(prematured) vacation and returning back from Honolulu. Is Santa coming back really?

Nifty closed well above DLEMA(4612) and closed above WLEMA(4689) too. Nifty is well above R2 of 4677 also and daily indicators are turned positive. Nifty has already retraced to 4708 which is 61.8% fibo from 4819 to 4531(Year low) - Again a Golden ratio.Can we see a gap down again as it did same on 5098?

Still to look deeply for more cheers because 4704 is a major resistance and we also closed below DHEMA 4713. Since it is a bear market rally it is better to take profits off the tables instead of overnight positions. Further, nifty is still in downtrend on higher time frame.

But such moves dont come every day.

If holding long - trade with JNSAR tom
If still holding short - trade with JNSAR tom

Still 6 trading days are left for expiry, which is reasonable and NF O.I. below even 1.75 CR.which is very-very rare and abnormal. Nifty trading well above DLEMA , almost 9.75lac put writing in Dec 4600 PE, suggesting now strong support there for series and more surprisingly 100 % i.e.almost 12 lac long addition in Jan 5100 CE is there ,which would be probably hidden indication for market players that Nifty has found a bottom here around 4550 …at least for the short term.
As NF O.I. is on extremely lighter side, and though above said facts are suggesting decent bounce back from here for next series, nevertheless, wise Bulls probably would wait further because when global sentiments and markets are still weak and the trend is down and when they know it very well that they are in a position to easily separate the sheep from the goats, then why shall they unnecessary rollover their long positions at higher level? So probably they will keep themselves quiet and would gather their “mal” @ lower level. In the mean time J10 SAR & JNSAR shall come further down …in their perfect range.. Let us see…

Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Technical Analysis for 21st Dec

Bearish Engulfing Pattern?

Nifty forming a Bearish Engulfing pattern in Daily Chart.

Generally, the bullish candle real body of Day 1 is contained within the real body of the bearish candle of Day 2.
The market gaps up (bullish sign) on Day 2; but, the bulls do not push very far higher before bears take over and push prices further down, not only filling in the gap down from the morning's open but also pushing prices below the previous day's open.
With the Bullish Engulfing Pattern, there is an incredible change of sentiment from the bullish gap up at the open, to the large bearish real body candle that closed at the lows of the day. Bears have successfully overtaken bulls for the day and possibly for the next few periods.

Three methodologies for selling using the Bearish Engulfing Pattern are listed below in order of most aggressive to most conservative:

1. Sell at the close of Day 2. An even stronger indication to sell is given when there is a substantial increase in volume that accompanies the large move downward in price.
2. Sell on the day after the Bearish Engulfing Pattern occurs; by waiting until the next day to sell, a trader is making sure that the bearish reversal pattern is for real and was not just a one day occurance. In the chart above of Verizon, a trader would probably entered on the day after the Bearish Engulfing Pattern because the selling continued.
3. Usually trader's wait for other signals, such as a price break below the upward support line, before entering a sell order. However, in the case of Verizon above, the Bearish Engulfing Pattern occured at the same time as the trendline break below support.

Daily High EMA-4724
Daily Low EMA-4617
JNSAR for 21st Dec 2011==4756
JNSAR for 22nd Dec 2011==4718


Before Trading please see the Golden Rules and TT Data

Santa Rally to 5000 in December Series?

Santa Claus has gone to Honolulu for vacation. Since 2 weeks Nifty has seen more declines and broken major support levels. First time in this 2011 Nifty has closed below 4600 mark which is lowest since September 2009.