Double bottom made @5161 Expiry jittery,NS may close 5250+

NS Daily Chart

NS formed double bottom at 5161 and retraced to 5210 from 5232-5161.Huge unwinding seen in 5200 puts but as well as unwinding started in 5200 calls. So it shows that NS may go below 5200 but NS has never closed at the low formed hourly except initial 2 hours trade where we saw almost 70 points rally from day high.

NS closed above day pivot 5199 and it may test the resistances @5238(R1) and 5273(week Pivot) and 5310(Monthly Pivot).Staying below 5199 will bring 5165 and 5125.100% rollover done for April series and we can expect an expiry close above 5250.


TT Data has been updated.

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Nifty is still in Hourly oversold territory, 5221 should hold hourly for upmove

NS Daily Chart

Nifty could able to hold and closed above 5221 which is a positive sign. Lot of ITM and OTM PE writing and OI decreasing suggests that Unwinding in puts, market is bullish  but price action still has to confirm in stochastics levels in daily chart but hourly stochastics shows overbought zone and price has not come into breakdown territory.

34DSMA(violet) and 34DEMA(yellow) both are converging which means a bullish breakout. NS closed above daily pivot of 5212 below this market will be weak and still has potential to test 5191-5155-5092 levels. Resistances are ahead at 5243-5264-5276 levels.

TT Data has been updated.

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RSI is still in +ve zone, Stoch has turned down target 5155

Lead indicator has turned down

 RSI level suggests that still it is in positive zone has to enter negative zone. Stochastics levels are suggesting that market has already broke down from overbought zone and turned negative but prices has to confirm. At this point NS will try to defend 5183 which is the lowest of this series so far and breaking of that level will give 5155 a support. NS may test 5092 which is month JNSAR also in this series. But if NS holds day pivot 5233 then more upside is possible up to 5270-75 level. If NS breaks 5183 then 5171(which is the fall from 5430-5171 in past) then a target may be more downwards to 5155-5147-5136-5092.


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Below 5269 weakness will be added more

NS Daily chary 02 Apr

Below pivot 5269, there will be more weakness. This week is truncated 3 trading sessions, but NS was in a hurry to catch 5330 last week. SL 5309 intraday for this short.


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Two numbers: 5341 and 5402 are important on Budget day

NF Daily Chart

 Today if NS hourly @ 10-00 am closes below 5341 which is R1, then go short and target will be 5268 and on the otherside if NS will close above Day pivot 5402, then go long target 5523. Expect lot of volatility around the day.

Our pragmatic Fin minister should not dissapoint corporates as well as fill the common man's pocket with lot of cash keeping in mind about the fiscal deficit alog with derailed growth of Indian Economy.


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Gap up possible in Opening 5450 is crucial-below 5392 is downside

NF Daily Chart

Gap up or gap down possibility and therefore a fast Rise and Fast Fall possibility in Hourly chart, when 100 SMA crosses 200 SMA fast rise and 20 SMA crosses 200 SMA then Fast Fall.

NF Hourly Chart

In the above hourly chart 

Green =>200 SMA

Red  => 100 SMA

Blue  => 20 SMA

Downside possible if NS breaks 5328

NS Google Chart-Daily

Yesterday was a choppy session. Nifty closed below all Hourly High EMAs. Possible downside if NS closes below 5328 which is yesterday's low and upside possible if NS closes above 5386.
Downside target may be 5304 to 5268 and upside target 5407 to 5455.


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Today a gap up opening is expected, trading above 5372 can take NS to 5437

NF Daily Chart

Yesterday Nifty Spot closed at 5340 which was the DLEMA for yesterday. There is high possibility of a gap up opening and NS may open above 5372. If NS will hold 5372 hourly basis then possibility to catch today's JNSAR is very high and NS may touch 5437 also. This correction will be over then and NS may target 5608 within next few trading sessions. SL will be 5340 for this long trade.

Nifty Spot to retest 5292-5306

NF Daily Chart

Nifty may retrace upto 5306 which is 68%  fibo retrace of 5638-5268




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Today NS may face stiff resistance at 5403 and go upto 5463 level

NF Daily Chart

Nifty broke the pivot as I told yesterday, that it may reach 5332 level and NS went beyond that and touched the day high at 5391. Nifty closed beyond all EMA on daily basis and closed above the the daily pivot too. If NS sustains this hold of 21-DEMA(5385) then more upside to 5400 and breaking that will take to 5463. I told earlier in previous post that this is not a bear market but just a correction.


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Today is crucial to save 5257=34DEMA

NF Daily Chart

Today it is crucial for NS to save 5257 which is 34Days Exponential Moving Average. If Nifty able to hold 5257 in the morning session then NS can move up to 5332 which is the Daily Pivot. If you refer my early blog, I have mentioned in earlier post on 22nd February ( http://niftytechnicalsonly.blogspot.in/2012/02/nifty-futures-are-in-very-much.html ) that NS may go down to 5200 level from 5630 level . RSI is still in midpoint, so possibilities are there to go down to oversold level and then a bounce. Below 5257, 5213 can be seen, which is 38% fibo retrace of the rise from 4532 to 5630.



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Nifty Spot can go upto 21 DMA 5361

NF Daily Chart

As told last week, this correction can go to 21DMA-5361 zone, and then retrace to day pivot,5452,above this larger retrace to 5461. New low can be made in the opening hour only.
For this type of market one should trade on the basis of HHEMA-HLEMA.

1-00 pm IST Update

NS broke R2=5337 also. Now at EOD saving 5361 is crucial for Bulls. I think today market can not break 5301 or 5288 if it breaks then it is a serious trouble for bulls. Do not go long. You can trade for a small intra bounce to till 5361.


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Correction started not a bearish stance

NF forming Bearish Harami in Daily chart

Correction has started and I believe it is not a Bear market rally. This correction can go upto 21SMA=5354. NS closed below JNSAR, please follow the rules for JNSAR below. Today's JNSAR is 5505 and if NS does close hourly basis above JNSAR then go long with a SL of yesterday's low of 5461 and if NS does not close above JNSAR then go short with a SL of 20 points premium to JNSAR.

In NF chart bearish Harami is poised as a Doji with bearish stance. Yesterday's close was expiry of February too which was almost 5480 i.e. weekly 50% FIBO. 5484 is good support line as per 30 min chart(nearly 10 days) 5494 is WEEKLY CAMARILLA L3. Please check calculator page for CAM levels.

2-40 pm IST Update

Nifty spot holding 5410, though it made a low of 5404. But I can not understand this huge premium inNifty Future. Now this level is super buy level I think. Make a SL of 5377.

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Nifty may try to attempt 5561 also which is 61.8% fibo of 5606-5491

NF Daily Chart

Nifty may try to attempt 5561 which is 61.8% fibo retrace of fall from 5606-5491. Above 5561 market may show bull side. Below 5486 shorts will pile up more and the NS may go down below 5450 to 5431. Hopefully there should not be any midpoint crisis in stochastic.



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Nifty Futures are in very much overbought zone

NF daily Chart

NF is in very overbought zone. The way it rose now it will fall in same severity. As told in earlier post price confirmation will confirm the fall. Nifty may take a chance to check 5630 and then the retrace back to 5200. shorting NF or buying March puts will reward more than risks. Below 5560 more downside to 5532. Expiry is tomorrow so be cautious.


10-30 am Update
Persisting -ve div in Hour ....suggests that this fall will be more than the recent intra corrections.



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A bearish Harami in making

Bearish Harami in NF Daily chart

NF in daily chart has made bearish Harami. The first has a large body and the second a small body that is totally encompassed by the first.Harami are considered potential bearish reversals after an advance and potential bullish reversals after a decline. But as per Dow Jones and global market sentiments this uptrend may go upto 5600 and then turn back to protect 5200.

Nifty formed Double Doji

NF Daily Chart

The double doji formation is neither a bullish or bearish formation, but represents a condition in which the open and close for the first session are the same, followed by a second session in which the open and close are again the same.
The Doji hints us that the market is in a state of balance of powers: the buyers strength has run out but so is the sellers'. So this is a state of temporary calmness before a major move. This pattern is usually found when both sellers and buyers are exercising the same pressure.
Double doji refers to the equilibrium state in which buyers and sellers are. Thus, typically it can be interpreted as a sure signal that a trend reversal will occur.
Mark the boundaries of theses "double doji" for a confirmed breakout or breakdown.

Today market corrected to 5351 and reached the high of 5421.
Initiate long @ 5340 with Stop Loss Price of 5320. or Initiate short @ 5390 with Stop Loss Price of 5420.
5425 is remaining a stiff resistance but breaking out of that level will take Nifty to 5468-5480. If bullish stands sustains then time to fasten belts. NF can move upto 5556 or fall from 5425 level. SBI good results will also boost BN above 10660.


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Nifty rangebound- Resistance 5415-5420

NF Daily Chart

Nifty made a doji on weekly chart and will move rangebound. Below 5363 more downside. People can short at 5425 level with a SL of 5450.

Nifty forming Inside Day

NF daily chart

'Inside Day'
A candlestick formation that occurs when the entire daily price range for a given security falls within the price range of the previous day. Inside day often refers to all versions of the harami pattern and can be very useful for spotting changes in the direction of a trend.






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Nifty poised hanging man but closed almost 5200

NF Daily Chart

Nifty poised a Hanging man on day before and as per Hanging Man NS was down 120 points day before but yesterday a sharp pull back proved wrong in Nifty. For tomorrow 5165 which is week's pivot has to be saved then NS can move past 5230+

Nifty may close below 5100 today

NF Daily Chart

Though RBI CRR cut of 50 bps has given a good rally to Nifty, which helped the index to cross over 5100 mark. RBI rate hike is to boost liquidity in terms of Rupee appreciation and also to boost banks for overnight borrowings. Everyday banks borrow money overnight from RBI @18% and that has come down to 16% which will give them more liquidity. But is the rate cut season has started? I do not think so as the fiscal deficit is churning up and it was predicted that it should be around 4.6% of GDP but it may go up to 6% GDP which is more pain for government. Unless Indian government takes some fiscal reforms and measures things are looking gloomy.
Now about Nifty, it may target 5070 for today's close as well as today is the expiry of F&O. Nifty is highly ovebought and investors/traders can short at this level upto 5150.


2-45 pm IST Update
Nifty testing the patience of traders who have shorted. As today is the expiry NS trying to close above 5150 to get the most rollovers.


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Below 5016 only Nifty may test 5000 otherwise it may go to 5100

NF Daily Chart

Nifty is trading in overbought zone for the second week. Today's RBI meet is very important. Greece talks are also same important in terms of global factor. if Nifty sustains above 5064 and RBI approves dovish stance(which is more unlikely at this moment) NS may go up to 5100 otherwise there will be down move to 5016 and below 5016 NS may target 4991-4972.But keeping on expiry NS may close above 4937 which is JNSAR.



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Nifty tested 5050 but that is enough

NF Daily chart by Google Finance

NS has moved past 5050, but I think this is enough from 4531 to 5050. As Anil said that ruppee is appreciating so the banks are gaining that is true But we do have RBI credit policy which is going to be held on 24th Jan. Though RBI may be dovish in terms of CRR cut but there is much liquidity in system. IIP data has given some boost so growth wise it is fine though IIP data is still not reliable. Expansions for the corporates are being stalled but inflation has come down below 7.5% MOM. Though RBI's stance for inflation would be below 6%. I do not think RBI will jump to cut rates atleast in January. NS sustaining below 4991 will wake up the bears and I am hoping expiry will be somewhere near 4885-4850 level.NS will face stiff resistance around 5030-5065-5080 level.

Nifty to resist @ 5011 level

Nifty Fut Daily Chart

NF is in highly overbought mode. Yesterday's consolidation after big rally has stalled NS to 4950 level. But as I said this rally is not convincing, it is the liquidity which is driving NS above 4986 level. I am full bearish at this level. Below 4985 short NS. Even NF is in discount now.

RIL is leading the front for NS for last 2 days where as CNX-IT stocks are lagging. But RIL has called for buyback of stocks which signifies down the line the earning will not be good for RIL. Tomorrow is RIL result and from tomorrow the bear show will start.

Nifty to test 5011 or before then it may go to 4906?

NF Daily Chart

Technicals of week is presently favouring this upmove. A keen tussle would emerge to retain 5000.

Support has risen to today's low-4905 with a gap & intraday supports @ 4935-45. 4986 is the immediate resistance above that NS may test 5011, but that level is almost 480 points up move from 4531. NS has to correct from there and it may go down to 4800 in this month or rather this down move will take 9-16 days. Due to expiry, option writers won't allow to come down more. May be after expiry the fall will start. This rise is not at all convincing. Strong Euro has pulled the European market as Spanish short term bond yields has come down and Spain could able to raise desired money. Overall situation is not favourable for sovereign bond holders. European debt has made S&P to downgrade the ratings. Obviously banks and other corporate institutions will not be ready to waive off the heavy debt made by countries.

For S&P(chart taken on 12-48 am IST) also 9-RSI is overbought state.

S&P Daily Chart at 12-50 am IST

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Market may move to 5000 in this week

NF Daily chart

NS has broken the 4880-4900 cluster resistance levels. It will again find some resistance at 4925 level. Breaking of that can lead to 5000 in NS within this week. Because NS has good support at 4825 levels.

Nifty Outlook for 16th Jan

Nifty Daily Chart

 Stochastics in Daily chart showing as Highly overbought zone. NS has turned up and reached 4899 and retraced back to 4838 and closed at 4866. NS facing heavy resistance @ 4900-4915 level. Important to watch 4820-4804 level. If NS breaches 4800 and decisively breaches 4791 then it may reach to 4751 and from then 4688 level. But if NS holds 4816 on first 2 hours of trade on 16th January, NS may go back to 4911 and then 4937 level.


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Sell on Rise in NS as it has closed below 4838

NF Daily Chart

NS has closed below all High EMAs, even it has closed below 4838 which is HEMA daily basis. So SELL On RISE is the mantra. Support for NS will be 4800 and then 4769.NS has closed below Day Pivot of 4835 where 4880 is found as bigger resistance.

Below 4800 more pain for Bulls.




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Nifty forming evening star

NF Daily Chart

As per the candlestick pattern Nifty Future chart shows there is a formation of Evening Star in Daily Chart.
The uptrend is getting exhausted may be lack of buying potentials from buyers. Today the down leg may start and as per Evening Star NS may go down more. Today at the opening selling of all longs (if taken) are suggested.
This uptrend is resisted @50 SMA-4875 and 4882 which is 68% fibonacci retrace from 5099-4531.
Even daily stochastic is also showing Highly Overbought. 9-RSI is also near overbought status.

8-45 am IST Update

Infosys has beat the street expectations in terms of Net Profit and EPS. But as I told yesterday the USD guidance has more importance for the next quarter(Q4) and Infosys has disappointed. I think Infosys will be thumb down by street.


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Nifty to resist @ 4882

NF Daily Chart

Nifty had a superb rally yesterday. Above 4825 there were no boundaries for NS. But today also the upmove will continue till 4882. Profit has to be booked partially/full. Nifty may come down to 4825-4800 level again. BN and CNX-IT will show the day.

European factor is still visiting back, probable chance of NS to slide to 4588-4562 level on the downside and if Infosys result comes good with stronger USD guidance then NS may go to 5050 level in January.



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Nifty has to break the cluster of 4765-4692 for direction



NF Hourly Chart

Nifty is in the cluster resistance of 4765-70 to get the direction for more upside. If Nifty is able to break 4765(DHEMA)-4692(DLEMA) range, then Nifty will decisively follow the trend.NS has closed below all High EMAs.

Staying above today's pivot 4732,target will be 4770/4793(R1/R2)
Staying below today's pivot 4732,target will be 4705/4670(S1/S2)



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Lackluster trading in Nifty: range is still 4690-4769

NF Daily chart

If resisted below 4780 and trades below 4755, weakness could drag it below 4705 towards 4675 or even 4635. DHEMA for today is 4769 and NS has to break it decisively to go more upside.DLEMA for today is 4690 below that is weakness.

Sometimes in these choppy and sluggish sessions it is advised to trade in Hourly basis moving averages(HEMA) but keep a Stop Loss on the basis of Daily moving averages(DEMA).







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Nifty may show volatile session today with very low volume

NF in Daily chart

Nifty is opened today from 11-00 am to 1-00 pm.

The way 4600,4700 & 4800PE has shoot up from the bottom is not heartening sign for Bulls when Nifty is hardly 40 -50 points below from it’s day Top. There is also addition in OTM puts. NS has also closed below 4769(DHEMA). So sell on close to 4690(DLEMA) still intact.



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Nifty in corrective mode

NF Daily Chart

Nifty should hold 4710-20 at the opening hour today. Nifty has closed below 4756(HEMA).

Holding day's gain is the next requirement.

Breaking past 4775-80, hour channel resistance is the next and bulls must do it today to have a decisive continuation of upmove.

"4825" is the daily channel resistance.

12-00 am Update

Question: Can intra longs be initiated with an hourly closing above DLEMA or they shud be treated with repective hourly time frame only i.e. with a close above HLEMA?

Answer: Always have a combination trading system such as:

Week/ Day TA for positional.
Day/ Hour for Short term as well as Intraday.

After Day closed below DHEma, the week/ Day presents a sell on rise but without down momentum as the closes have been above both WLEma & DLEma.

As for Day/ Hour combo, similar sentiments except that Day hasn't triggered a sell by closing below its DEma yet.It could be today.

As the colours in the TT changes, you can feel the strength & weaknesses of different time frame.

As long as the higher T/F is in sell mode, treat the greens in the lower T/F as a ST play only till other "credible reversal patterns & divergences emerge".

2-00 pm Update

4720-25 is big resistance now as it broke today which was working as support for last 2 days.Above that day for bulls.

Book your profit part or full @ 4758 as it is well above DHEMA.

3-30 pm IST Update

Market showed some choppy sessions. I told lower levels of profit booking for longs. Even @4780 level shorts were taken and again booked @4740 level below DHEMA. NS held 4756 at closing basis but there are Out of the money(OTM) active puts bought. So market may need time to break 4786 decisively. No positions carried for overnight.



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Consolidation phase to continue after huge upmove

NF Daily chart

Today's developing JNSAR is 4690. So Nifty should protect this for today as Lead indicator suggests highly overbought in hourly chart. Still immediate support is 4723 and resistance is 4780(yesterday's high). As long JNSAR(4690) is protected we can see more upside upto 4815 intraday basis.



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Doji turned a Dragonfly Doji?

NF in Daily Chart

Monday Doji was confirmed though it was not exactly Dragonfly Doji but yesterday's superb move of 120 points in NS may confirm that too.
Yesterday's  HEMA 4724 will become the support and yesterday's high 4773 will act as immediate resistance.Hourly NS is slightly overbought. From 5099 to 4531, 0.38% fibonacci retracement is 4747 and that is done. 4815 is 0.50% retracement. Above that level NS may target 4882 and 4950.Buy in dips is the mantra.





TT Data has been updated.

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Nifty forming Doji on Daily Chart

NF in Daily chart forming Doji?

Nifty forming Doji in Daily chart. Many times Doji has given a bullish scenario in daily chart.
Nifty stopped around the 80% retrace of the last rise from 4531 to 4801 and thus attempting to make a ST reversal.
In the opening session, the downtrend continued to assert itself and Nifty drifted lower despite its attempt to move above Day pivot-4642.
Once it reached 4588, the hour TA showed the first glimpse of "intraday changes" with a hour close near the highs.Subsequent drops became small retracements and Nifty closed near day's high and above DLEma.
Holding above 4590, it could attempt to break past the channel. How high it could go...So far only the Hour TA has confirmed a ST reversal. It is yet to affect the day/ week TA.
If no reversal takes place in this month, January may show a deep cut.

12-45 pm IST Update

Huge intra O.I. addition in NF above 15 lac plus,needs now at-least some intra cooling off is feeling here so it will be interesting to see from here how Nifty will play around weekly 5Ema,if it shall try the same..

1-00 pm IST Update

4730-4750 is the profit(full) booking zone for those who have taken long.

2-20 pm IST Update

Lead Indicator(Stochastics 5,3,3) is showing overbought in hourly NF chart





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Below 4586 Nifty will drag down further

NF Daily Chart

"4586" is the 80% mark of the retracement of 4531 to 4801.

ST reversal, if any, is possible if it holds.

Breach of "4663" would have, initially, some upsides. More confirmations would come only above 34 Hr sma @ 4705.

Downtrend is intact. Below 4585(approx..), it could gather momentum





TT Data has been updated.

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